Brandy Auterson:
It’s now time for 4 Your Money. We’re joined by David Nelson, CEO of NelsonCorp Wealth Management. Welcome back, David.
David Nelson:
Thank you very much.
Brandy Auterson:
So with the Fed expected to raise rates this week at the FOMC meeting, what should viewers be expecting? Is the impact of any rate hike already priced into current market levels?
David Nelson:
It certainly appears to be. I think the Fed has done a really nice job, as far as trying to prep the market as far as for this. I brought along a chart today that’s going to illustrate just the visually here as far as the difference between telegraphing it as they have versus not. And we’re going to talk about slow cycle versus a fast cycle. The green line, we’ll start with that. That’s basically looking at the S&P, and it’s looking at three different periods of time as far as a three-year cycle here. And then we’d look at the blue line. That’s looking at increases as far as the Fed has increased during this period of time. And you see that it’s not quite as dynamic as the green line and it’s given back. So it’s experiencing some of those negative drag. Now, the black line and the orange line get a little bit more complicated. So folks, try to hang with me here.
David Nelson:
The black line is looking at increases but they’re staggered increases. So not every Fed meeting, are we increasing interest rates. So this is defined as a slow increasing regime. Now, the orange line is probably what we’re in right now, which is where the Fed has basically telegraphed they’re going to be increasing interest rates, and they’re probably doing it under the definition of fast, which means that pretty much every meeting going forward for quite some time, they’re going to be increasing interest rates. And you can see the difference. For a two-year period of time, it’s tough to make money as far as in this type of environment. We’ve been chatting about it, and here’s just a nice visual to show people that probably going into this type of environment, it’s going to be really tough to make money in stocks.
Brandy Auterson:
David, as always, thanks for joining us today.