Constructive, with Conditions
OVERVIEW Markets pulled back modestly during the first week of the new year, with U.S. equities generally lower across the board. Large-cap stocks led the decline, as the S&P 500 fell 1.03% and the NASDAQ dropped 1.52%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average...
Signals From the Factory Floor
Heading into the new year, one question we get a lot is: How is the economy doing? Now, it can be hard to answer a question like that, because what one means by “the economy” can be different for different people. Are we talking about economic growth?...
The 2026 Market Cycle
Today officially marks the first day of the new year, so let’s take a look at the NDR Cycle Composite for 2026 to see what the new year has in store for us. Now, this is one of the tools we use to help set expectations, not to make predictions. It’s based...
Mom-and-Pop Stress Test
Unfortunately, the data continues to show struggles for small businesses. John Nelson shares the numbers on Subchapter 5 bankruptcy filings and how they could become a warning for the broader economy.
Not Overly Excited
OVERVIEW Markets finished the holiday-shortened week on a constructive note, with broad-based gains across most major asset classes. U.S. equities moved higher, led by large-cap stocks. The S&P 500 rose 1.40% on the week, while the NASDAQ added 1.22%. The...
Higher for Longer
We got some encouraging economic news this week. In the third quarter, real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace, the fastest growth in two years and well above expectations. That strength is welcome, but it also helps explain something else we’ve been living...
Reading the Yield Curve
For this week’s indicator, we’re looking at a simple but powerful signal from the bond market called the yield curve. Don’t let the name scare you off. At its core, this indicator just compares two interest rates: the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and...
The Return of Real
There is plenty of talk about where the economy is currently heading. David Nelson names what he believes to be the most important indicator for investors to keep an eye on right now.
Rooted in Earnings
OVERVIEW Markets were mixed but generally quiet last week, with modest gains in several major indexes. Large-cap stocks edged higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.10% and the NASDAQ gaining 0.48%. The S&P 100 also rose 0.17%, suggesting some stabilization in...
Grain of Salt
The big news in the finance world this week was the release of the November inflation numbers. On the surface, it was a good report. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted a 2.7% y/y gain, down from 3% in September. And if we back out food and energy...
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