The CAPE in Context
The stock market has been described as expensive lately. David Nelson is here to share CAPE Shiller data and illustrate why it is important for the valuation picture.
Opposites Attract
OVERVIEW Markets rebounded sharply last week, breaking a recent losing streak as gains spread across nearly every major index. The S&P 500 climbed 1.70%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.56%. The NASDAQ led large caps higher with a 2.14%...
Sprint, Then Jog
I’ve got an interesting chart for folks this week. It shows how the stock market (S&P 500 Index) has historically performed, on average, after a 6-month rally of at least 35%. That’s the blue line—the average. Why is that interesting? Because the orange...
Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed
This week I'd like to highlight a fun little indicator called “Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed.” Technically, it’s a model, because it combines two separate indicators. And while we don’t use it directly in our broader modeling process, it still captures an important...
Financial Focus – October 15th, 2025
In this week’s program, Nate and Andy talk about a busy mid-October week filled with tax deadlines and Medicare open enrollment. They also break down the latest tax bracket changes, the shift toward online IRS accounts, and why paper checks are officially a thing of the past.
Micro Matters
David Nelson is here to explain stock market correlations and why the lack of correlations in the current S&P 500 data is a positive sign for investors.
Running Hot
OVERVIEW Markets stumbled last week, as selling pressure hit nearly every corner of the equity landscape. The S&P 500 dropped 2.43%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.73%. The NASDAQ slid 2.53%, extending a broad pullback that also saw the...
A Tale of Two Profits
This week’s chart compares S&P 500 reported earnings (orange line, top panel) with after-tax corporate profits from the National Income and Product Accounts, or NIPA (green line, top panel). NIPA profits track economy-wide corporate earnings,...
Conviction Speaks Volumes
This week’s featured indicator blends two important ideas: volume and conviction. The volume part is fairly straightforward. We measure how much trading activity happens in stocks that are going up—what we call Volume Demand—and compare it to the activity in...
Financial Focus – October 8th, 2025
Check out this week’s Financial Focus where Nate Kreinbrink talks about the upcoming Medicare open enrollment period and what retirees should review before making changes. He also dives into one of the most common retirement questions—how much you really need to save—and why managing debt is just as important as building your nest egg.
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