A Tale of Two Profits

A Tale of Two Profits

    This week’s chart compares S&P 500 reported earnings (orange line, top panel) with after-tax corporate profits from the National Income and Product Accounts, or NIPA (green line, top panel). NIPA profits track economy-wide corporate earnings,...
Shutdown—but Not Shutout

Shutdown—but Not Shutout

  Well, it happened again. The U.S. government went into “shutdown” this week after Congress couldn’t agree on a stopgap funding bill. We’ve seen this before, and while it makes for plenty of high drama in Washington, for the stock market it tends to be more of a...
Growth Swing

Growth Swing

  The U.S. economy is looking pretty strong again—or at least it was last quarter. Real GDP growth was revised in the second quarter to 3.8%, a sharp rebound from the -0.6% decline in the previous quarter. As a reminder, real GDP is a measure of...
Stagflation-lite

Stagflation-lite

  Well, it didn’t come as a surprise, but the Fed went ahead and cut rates this week—their first move since last December. What was more interesting, though, were the new economic projections. This week’s chart shows the Fed’s outlook for 2025. The bars track...
The Big Bond Bounce

The Big Bond Bounce

  Are bonds back? They’re certainly looking feisty again. As this week’s chart above shows, the Bloomberg GlobalAgg Index, which tracks returns on sovereign and corporate debt across developed and emerging markets, has surged more than 20% from its 2022 low—and...
The Long and the Short of It

The Long and the Short of It

  There’s been a bit of chatter lately about 30-year Treasury yields and the fact that they have been inching up towards 5%. As a reminder, the 30-year Treasury yield is the interest the U.S. government promises to pay you each year if you let them borrow your...