The Sahm Rule

The Sahm Rule

  The latest jobs report brought some interesting insights into our economy. In October, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. While still low by historical standards, it is a notable increase from the 3.4% low in April. A jump this size often raises fears that a...
When Cash Is King

When Cash Is King

  In the long run, stocks beat cash. That’s a well-established fact. But the problem with the long run is that it’s so, well… long. Over shorter periods of time, stocks can be quite volatile, like a roller coaster, and in those instances, cash can sometimes come...
No Peaks, No Problem

No Peaks, No Problem

  It’s been a while since the S&P 500 stock index made a record high. As our featured chart this week shows, there have been zero record highs this year; in fact, it’s been 21 months since the stock market last reached a record high, the longest streak in a...
Earnings Lifeline

Earnings Lifeline

  Higher interest rates have been a thorn in the side of the stock market for many months now. But fortunately, relief appears to be on the way—and it’s coming in the form of improved stock market earnings. Our featured chart above shows the 12-month forward (or...
Less Quitting

Less Quitting

  The latest inflation figures for September were unveiled this week. The main takeaway was that consumer prices, which rose 3.7% from a year ago, remain slightly elevated—but underlying cost pressures are also starting to ease. One of those underlying cost...
Rate Breakout

Rate Breakout

  For a while, it looked as if long-term interest rates had peaked. The 30-year Treasury rate was falling, and mortgage rates were down a whole percentage point from their November 2022 highs. But things have since changed. As our featured chart above shows, both...