Productivity Problems

Productivity Problems

  U.S. workers got a lot less productive in the first quarter of this year. According to the latest figures from the Labor Department, nonfarm business employee output per hour—or simply labor productivity—dropped by a 7.5% annual rate from the previous quarter,...
Dollar Dominance

Dollar Dominance

  Listen closely, and you might hear chants of “King Dollar!” echoing faintly in the background. Why? Because the stealthy story unfolding in the financial markets over this past month has been the surge in the value of the U.S. dollar. As our chart of the week...
About to Get Real

About to Get Real

  We’ve seen financial conditions tighten up a bit already during this new Fed tightening cycle, but so far, it hasn’t had too much of an effect on the real economy. However, that might be about to change. For example, our chart of the week above shows that real...
Mixed Feelings

Mixed Feelings

  When it comes to measuring consumer confidence, the two best-known surveys are published by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board. Both are widely followed and respected, but they measure slightly different things. The Conference Board’s survey...
Back to Normal

Back to Normal

  One of the weird things about the 2020 recession was that household balance sheets in the U.S. actually improved quite a bit. Not only did the personal savings rate skyrocket, but credit card debt plummeted as well. A combination of fiscal and monetary support...
The Powell Indicator

The Powell Indicator

  The U.S. job market reminds me of the way the character Mugatu describes the male fashion model Hansel in the 2001 film Zoolander. “So hot right now.” Currently, there are around 11.3 million open jobs in the United States, compared to just 6.2...