Running on Empty

Running on Empty

  Something’s off. At first glance, the S&P 500 seems to be doing OK, but something doesn’t add up. One of our key indicators—the NDR Combination High-Low Logic Index—is running hot. And when this thing gets too high, history says it’s a warning. Let’s talk...
The Wealth Effect

The Wealth Effect

  Some say the economy is on shaky ground. They point to high interest rates. They talk about inflation. They worry about a slowdown. But if you look at household wealth, you’d see a different story. This week’s indicator, Household Real Estate vs. Household...
What’s Fair is Fair

What’s Fair is Fair

  This week’s indicator focuses on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Fair Value Model, a tool designed to gauge whether 10-year Treasury yields are too high, too low, or just right. With interest rates playing such a pivotal role in the markets, knowing when Treasuries...
Regime Roulette

Regime Roulette

  This week’s indicator is all about regimes. Markets, much like history, operate in distinct regimes, and for the stock market, the two biggest drivers of these cycles are economic growth and inflation. Together, they set the stage for the economic scenario the...