by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Jan 18, 2024 | Indicator Insights
Is a recession coming? While a definitive yes-or-no answer to a question like that is virtually impossible, we can get somewhat close by using a model that assigns a probability to the outcome—called a Recession Probability Model. The main ingredients for the...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Jan 11, 2024 | Indicator Insights
The FIBER U.S. Weekly Leading Index is a tool economists and investors use to measure economic growth. It’s called a “leading index” because it tends to lead the economic cycle by several months. Since it reveals the direction in which the economy is likely...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Jan 4, 2024 | Indicator Insights
The stock market tends to go up over time. But there are times when it goes up too high, too fast. When this happens, a correction tends to occur, meaning stocks drop at least 10% from a recent high. We don’t always know when a correction is about to occur. But...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Dec 28, 2023 | Indicator Insights
Investors often assess a company’s earnings in two ways: by looking at its trailing earnings (the past) and its future earnings (expected). This week’s indicator looks at a combination of both to understand how they influence stock returns. At the...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Dec 21, 2023 | Indicator Insights
Our nickname for this week’s indicator is the “inflation leader.” Why? Because it tends to lead the broader measures of inflation—like the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index—and can therefore warn us when inflationary pressures are building. The...
by NelsonCorp Wealth Management | Dec 14, 2023 | Indicator Insights
The writer Jason Zweig once wrote that regression to the mean is the most powerful law in financial physics. By this, he meant that after a period of really good stock market returns, we can expect things to cool down, and after a rough patch, there’s a...
