Announcer:
Now on KROS for Financial Focus, brought to you by NelsonCorp Wealth Management. The opinions voiced in this show are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Any indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Registered representatives, securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Inc., a broker-dealer, member of FINRA, SIPC, investment advisor representative Cambridge Investment Research Advisors Inc. A registered investment advisor, Cambridge and NelsonCorp Wealth Management are not affiliated. Cambridge does not offer tax advice. Now, here’s today’s Financial Focus program.
Gary Determan:
Well, Dave Nelson in studio to join me. We go to the bottom of the hour today. Dave, great to see you.
David Nelson:
Yeah, you too, Gary. It’s-
Gary Determan:
You’ve been busy.
David Nelson:
… We’ve been busy, yes. Things have been good. As far as from, excuse me, a business perspective, things are really, really good this time of the year. Now with Medicare, as far as doing, as far as the volume that we’re doing, as far as in Medicare, things are even busier than they normally would be. All the prep work coming about, getting ready as far as for tax season as far as just around the corner. And again, it’s been a good journey, a long journey as far as trying to build this, I guess call it infrastructure out, as far as to be able to primarily work with, I would say, probably 55 year olds through probably 90 year olds. And actually, two days ago, two days ago, I picked up the phone and made a call, outgoing call to a long time client that just turned 100.
So, yeah. But anyway, the meat of this message just basically is built around what are issues that 55, 60, 70 year olds deal with? And income tax is big deal. Geez, I need to eat, so I need to have a pension/social security/money management, whatever. My Medicare, healthcare is a big, big item and I need to understand Medicare better than what I do, etc., etc. So, over the last 40 years, this has been the goal as far as to try to be of service and to be able to offer these type of benefits. But having quality individuals as far as that are smart enough to be able to explain this stuff to people, smart enough to explain it in such a way that people can understand it, takes a unique group of people. And so, we’ve been very blessed as far as over the years, to have some great individuals.
We’ve had a couple of our advisors retire, but fortunately we’ve had the bench, the B team as far as at one point, that’s the A team that’s been able to step in and take care of that load. So, it’s a great challenge, and again, we love it. Some thank you’s. As far as to clients, we do an annual, we do a lot of events. I had a person in literally two days ago, and as they were leaving, they said, “We really appreciate everything you do for the community.” And that means as much as anything to me because, again, as I told them, this area has been very good to me, and the right thing to do, the just thing to do is to give back. And so, we do that. We do fun events, but like last night, we support as far as pay rent, as far as up for the, up at Eagle Point Park, the pavilion as far as up there.
And so, we had I think north of 400 people that came and went as far as last night. Tonight is going to be a follow-up as well. Our waiting list, I think we had 60 on one list and 80 on the other list as far as individuals we couldn’t get in. But it’s really important. So, these events have gone from our early Christmas parties, I think worth 20 people maybe, something like that. We did it at The Women’s Club. So, those that know The Women’s Club, there’s not a lot of room as far as to kind of mingle and whatever there. But anyway, 400 plus last night, 400 plus tonight. It’s going to be another fun, it’d be cold, but nevertheless, it should be a great evening and looking forward to having some quality time as far as with some of the friends that we work with.
Gary Determan:
And you know what the great thing is? You know every one of them by name, Dave.
David Nelson:
Yeah. It’s a skill set that I’ve tried to master and I’m pretty close. Those that I work with, yes, I know them all, but we had tremendous growth. I think we have literally, we’ve been adding, I think, in the neighborhood of 150 new people as far as to the business each year, the last three years. So, it’s a lot of new heads to take care of. And again, we are very appreciative of the area. We really take great pride in putting out a quality product, we think second to none. And again, backing it up as far as with the educational part of it. I share with clients all the time, and I know this sounds probably self-serving and to some degree it might be, but these are the facts as well. And that is that when individuals come in and they’re basically trying to ask some questions, trying to get a feel for us, etc, etc., I used to be more diplomatic than I am today.
Today, I basically say, “Do you want a person that’s passed a test to sell you a product, or do you want somebody that’s passed that same test but also has passed many more tests as far as to be an advisor, to be on the same side of the table as you as far as going forward? In other words, jumping in the boat with you.” And when we go through this, it’s a pretty strong argument because, again, I’ll be careful on how I word it. The vast majority of the people out there that are so-called in the same business have a license to sell a product, and that’s it. And so, to me, that’s a major difference and a really important difference to the investing public that they have somebody that gets it. They understand tax issues, they understand estate planning issue, they understand money management issues. They get it, they understand this arena and that it really makes a difference as far as long-term.
Gary Determan:
Nate Kreinbrink came on board after working for the Clinton Baseball Club, and he pretty much does the financial focus program now on Wednesdays when you’re not in on the first Wednesday. And he was talking about when he first came on board, the tests that he did take, had to prepare for, and then the security involved when they are taking these tests.
David Nelson:
Yes, exactly. Oh, it’s fingerprinted. You got cameras on you so that somebody else isn’t taking your test. Very, very important. I totaled mine up the other day as far, and Nate’s on this same path. I mean, eventually we’ll be there. And when we talk about these tests, I mean, you’re talking about months of heavy studying as far as to get to that point. And my wife’s friend from New York came back and we got chatting and I’d never really knew her. Well, this is somebody she grew up with, and once they went to college, they went separate directions and communicated a couple of times a year, but now she’s getting back to this area more and more. And she said, “You know what I remember about you is every time that I came to house, you were always studying.” And I thought, “Really?” So, I did little math and came up with, how many exams?
One exam, by the way, is two days. I mean, a two-day exam, just try that on for size. But anyway, it’s 46 different tests. And so, it’s a demanding business. This isn’t a part-time job. This is a full-time job and it better be with some intensity because that’s what it’s going to take if you’re going to really have impact. And so, Nate, yeah, he’s probably in the 10, 15 range right now, and he’s a young buck and got many exams going forward. But it’s really important, again, I can’t emphasize enough the world of just buying a mutual fund and trusting the money manager that over time they’re going to make us some money, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, is done. We have so much money that’s sloshing around in hedge funds, pension funds, etc., etc., moving the market day to day.
I got to be careful in terms that I bring up, but hopefully folks can relate to some of this new currency stuff that’s out there and the craziness as far as billed around that stuff. And periodically, somebody will come in and they’ll ask us about this, “What do you think of this particular investment option?” And again, if you don’t have your nose in the books, you won’t have a clue as far as what they’re talking about. And even having the nose and the books as far as on this space, I keep coming back to when clients ask, I said, “Do you understand this?” And they say, “No.” And I say, “I’ve spent a lot of time on it and I still don’t understand it.” So, Warren Buffett says, “If you don’t understand something, you shouldn’t be investing in it.” So, that’s pretty much the approach that we take to it.
Gary Determan:
Good advice, no doubt about that. Going back to Nate, and what did you see in him when he first came on board?
David Nelson:
Work ethic. I mean, our business, a lot of this stuff can be taught if you have the work ethic, and again, we’re in a business, I shouldn’t even bring this up, but CNBC, if people watch in the evening, most of the programs are about some type of theft, some scam that took place. And probably 9 out of 10 have to do with our business. Their so-called people that are advisors and they’re going to take your money and they’re going to pay you this much as far as the earnings, and whatever they’re so brilliant, they’re going to do all these wonderful things as far as for you. And so, number one would be on the list as far as work ethic. Number two, and a very close number two is going to be just trustworthiness, because again, I’m telling you, as far as you see somewhat how easy it is as far as to pull the wool over on people.
I mean, people just don’t get our space. They don’t understand it and many of them don’t want to understand it. So, they’re just handing over their life savings. They’ve worked 40 years and I build up a hundred grand, or I build up a million or whatever the number is, and they’re handed over to somebody hoping that those people are going to be trustworthy and take care of them. And again, I go back to when we started over in Fulton, 41, 42, 43 years ago, I looked 12 years old at the time. I wish I kind of, but anyway, it was all about, can I trust you?
And so, through time, I think people realize that it’s just absolutely crucial, and there’s been enough bad situations and stuff happening as far as out there that I think people are aware of, that you’ve got to find somebody that’s going to jump in the boat with you. They’re not as salesperson as far as relating to our business. They’re basically an advisor and they get paid based on how well the information that they give to you is working. And to me, that’s really, really important.
Gary Determan:
Before we take a break for the weather, you talk about work ethic and trustworthiness. I got to throw one more out there, passion.
David Nelson:
Yeah. The passion’s really, really important too because this business will beat you up. Yeah, you think you’re pretty smart, you read something and you think, “I think this investment would be great,” and they don’t always work out. So, again, having a good game plan is really important. And, yeah, that’s an area that I’ve never been accused of not having. And not just in this business, but pretty much across the board. I have a passion. First thing out of my mouth this morning was how did the River Queens do last night? And did you hear as far as my old team, as far as Prince of Peace Gals, how they did last night? So, there was a passion there as well that I really miss.
Gary Determan:
Okay. Well, let’s take a break for the weather. Second half of the program, I would imagine addressing the stock market’s doing pretty well.
David Nelson:
It’s doing great. It’s been an unbelievable run. And again, we can chat about the good and the bad as far as to that.
Gary Determan:
All right. 9:15, our weather update, brought to you by Frary Lumber.
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Gary Determan:
We’re going to continue on to the bottom of the hour now with Dave Nelson. Stock Market, my goodness.
David Nelson:
It’s been a fun run. If we look at the odds of two years back to back, being 20% plus is quite rare. That’s pretty much where we stand as far as now. We’ll see, as far as we still have a month to go here as far as things could get crazy, as far as upward or downward as far as going forward. But it’s been a good run, and I think the best part of it, Gary, we get to question as far as oftentimes, as far as is it justified, can we really justify as far as what’s taking place?
And clearly, there’s some variables that you look at that can basically be very worrisome. But one of the really important items is, as far as if we look at profit margins today, as far as from many of these companies in comparison to years past. So, the piece that I did yesterday as far as on TV, we had, unfortunately I don’t have it here, but I’ll try to give you the visual folks and kind of splay it out. But it’s looking at the ’60s through the year 2000, and profit margins from companies in comparison to the GDP.
So, in other words, the gross domestic product. And history said 6% was pretty much the going rate during the bulk of that period of time. Fast-forward to 2000 through literally about five years ago, and what we find is that it went from 6 to 10%. So, what does that really mean? It basically means that there’s more profits per GDP out there, is probably the way of explaining it. Now, fast-forward to even the last five years, and now we’re at 11%. So, again, when it’s all said and done, profits are greater. Why? Well, we’re selling globally, but probably if you had to bring it down to one item, you’d bring it down to technology companies. And the profit margins that these big technology companies have in comparison to the old traditional type consumer staple type stocks, etc., etc., is there’s no comparison between the two of them.
And so, it’s just massive gains coming from primarily the big technology companies. And this has basically caused the market to go up and go up pretty dramatically. Now, the big question is, it going to continue? And I’m saying right now, are things crazy as far as from an overvaluation perspective? I don’t believe so. Again, obviously our crystal ball, we can’t say for sure either direction. But if I had to say, backed into a new corner, I don’t think things are that crazy overly priced. But I would be careful at this point in time. I think the other thing, Gary, that’s different this year versus what we’ve had the last several years, and I’ll go back to 2022, so just a couple years ago, and if we look at 2022, we had the stock market that got thumped, we had real estate that got thumped, both of which were over 30% drop.
And then, I’m going to throw in the big kicker here as far as to really open people’s eyes, I hope it does at least open your eyes up to the risks that exist in one other area that people think are, there’s no risk. And that is, if you owned a 20-year US government bond and you owned it the entire year of 2022, you were down north of 30% as well. So, you had these three main categories that people invest in, all of which got thumped. And so, and again, I emphasize the 20-year. If I owned a one-year like T-bill, I made money during 2022 in bonds. But I’m talking about the 20-year, the 30-year type, the long maturity bonds that got thumped. Now, again, if I hold that until maturity, so 20 years out, I bought it today and 20 years from now it’ll be worth face value, assuming the government’s going to be viable, which I’m not questioning in any way.
But along the way, you’re sitting there looking at a statement, and one day I had a hundred grand, and now I’m looking at a statement that says I’ve got 30 in my so-called safe investment. And to say that that wouldn’t bother you is hocus pocus. I did my coursework at the John Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and the whole course was built around exploiting other people’s mistakes in the money management world. And emotions have a tremendous impact when people start talking about their money. When I’m looking at a statement that one day was, again, a hundred grand, and now it says 70, you can’t tell me that isn’t driving you wild. And so, the reality is people, when they look at stuff like that, they could say, well, “But it may get worse, and so I better sell now.” And so, again, subsequently, that’s really, really important as far as to help people in advance on that type of stuff.
So, bonds this year, stocks this year, real estate to some degree this year, and I’m talking about publicly traded real estate have had a pretty good run. Stocks being the best, bonds have an okay year, real estate have an okay year. Commodities, eh. If you own gold, you had a pretty good year. But beyond that, bottom line, it’s been a questionable space as far as some of the other stuff as far as there. So, again, I’ll put my disclaimer in, none of this is investment advice. It’s just trying to give you facts as far as what’s taken place, and as best we can try to give you what we believe, no guarantees, but what we believe tomorrow might look like. And, again, I don’t think there’s a major crises that we’re going to have to face. It has nothing to do, folks, with who’s in the White House.
It comes up all the time. We have so much data that we can share with you, that the person in the White House has very little to do with what the market’s going to do, what the stock market’s going to do. And it just blows people away when we put it in front of them and people’s jaw drop and they say, “Oh geez, I didn’t know that.” And again, those are people that lean hard left. Those are people that lean hard right, get over it, as far as the presidency, the past one. Where it started showing up was I think with Bush Jr., where people really started getting political on this stuff, and “Oh, that bonehead, he can’t do anything right, whatever, whatever.”
And it’s just gotten to a point in time that is just unbelievable that we as Americans are so divided on this stuff. In my world of money, forget about it. It really doesn’t matter as much as you believe it matters. And if somebody tells you otherwise, they’re basically having a stack deck, they’re trying to feed you something that just isn’t true.
Gary Determan:
Visiting with Dave Nelson, I do read my emails from you.
David Nelson:
Oh, good. Good. All right, good.
Gary Determan:
And one of the things that caught my eye was the strength of the dollar-
David Nelson:
Yes.
Gary Determan:
… worldwide.
David Nelson:
Yes. That’ll be next Tuesday, folks, if you’re interested. CBS, I don’t know what time, it’s 6:00 news, whatever, whatever. But the dollar, and people, in the US, we’re spoiled. We don’t have to typically think about it. When people invest money with us, there’s nobody that asks, “What’s the dollar doing?” But if you’re outside the US, you’re asking, “What’s the dollar doing?” And the impact that it has. So, when the dollar strengthens, again, people view that probably in a pretty positive way as far as in the US. But the negative to that is that it’s more expensive now if you’re producing a product here and you’re selling it in Europe, let’s say. So, it’s not so good as far as for certain entities. And so, these big global companies, they have to basically hedge their bets as far as on currencies. And so, it’s very important.
Oil’s another area that, again, it needs to be hedged, what have you. But the dollar, geez, you look over the last 20 years, there’s been some minor pullbacks here and there, but as a general thumb, the dollar has been on fire. It continues to be on fire. People say, why? And I say, well, if you go back and look during the last big crises that we had, we hit interest rates basically in the United States that were 1, 2%. You had interest rates outside the United States, primarily I’ll talk about Europe, Japan, that literally were negative. Negative returns. So, if you invested in a government bond in Japan for a period of time, let’s say 10 years, whatever, you knew factually, that when that thing matured in 10 years or 20 years, you would get back less than you put in.
Now, just ponder that for a second as far as who’s going to do that? Well, they did that because they felt more secure with that versus investing in the market over as far as in Japan. Same thing in Europe. And so today, our yields as far as on our government bonds are higher, subsequently attracting money over here. The dollar is stronger. That makes people outside the United States more feel like this is the safe haven. And subsequently, we’ve had just a boatload of money poured into the United States over the last 20 years, primarily, again causing what you just brought up, and that is the dollar to strengthen. And again, reasons why? I gave you two really good reasons why.
Gary Determan:
Wrapping it up with you today, getting ready for a new year.
David Nelson:
Yep.
Gary Determan:
And of course, that’s always interesting. You’ve got the tax people on board now, I imagine they’re getting geared up, getting ramped up for what’s going to be a busy season.
David Nelson:
Yes.
Gary Determan:
As you pointed out, you’ve taken on Medicare. You’re building an empire down there, sir.
David Nelson:
We’ve got a big business that demands a lot of really, really talented people. And again, taking the responsibility of doing it right, and the people that we have are just some of the best. I mean, again, hardworking, trustworthy. There it is. That’s really, really crucial. So, the tax side, yes, we’re, I forget exactly, but it’s neighborhood of I think 1,700 different tax returns that we do. So, we’re doing a lot of work in that space. And then, Medicare is the newbie. We’ve got several hundred now, but eventually that’ll grow pretty dramatically. But, yeah, it’s really important. And again, there’s a lot of people that have looked to us over the years as far as to give them, well, I’ll put it this way. When we brought St. Ambrose aboard, I asked them point-blank, why did you choose us versus everybody else in this area?
And it came down to this. They said, “When we ask you a question, you don’t beat around the bush. You tell us what we believe is the truth.” And I think that’s really, really important. We deliver bad news when appropriate. Like now, I wouldn’t be charging in and throwing all kinds of money in the market. We don’t believe that there’s a tremendous amount of upside, but we don’t think that the bottom’s going to fall out either. Just telling people that I think is really, really important. And again, we think it’s part of our job description, is to tell people what they need to hear and not what they want to hear.
Gary Determan:
Just wrap up your toy and food drive, and again, the great things you folks do for the community.
David Nelson:
Last night, we literally had two pickup trucks jammed. Had to drive very slowly home so the stuff doesn’t fly out. But 400 people, all of which pretty much are bringing something, it’s going to have some impact in this area. And again, we’re just the entity that, and we match, so I think that’s why people bring in our direction. But there’s going to be a lot of smiles as far as little kids in this area. There’s going to be a lot of smiles from people that are going to have something really, really good to eat. And, yeah, it’s a small little thing that we do, but I’m hoping that, again, locally, it has a really big impact. We owe a lot to this area, and again, we’ll keep doing what we’re doing as far as in that space.
Gary Determan:
Well, it’ll be interesting. The first Friday of January is January 1st.
David Nelson:
1st? I did not know that until that now.
Gary Determan:
I’ll probably be here.
David Nelson:
Okay. Maybe I will reach out.
Gary Determan:
It’s entirely up to you.
David Nelson:
Sure, sure.
Gary Determan:
Otherwise we can have you in on January 8th, one way or the other.
David Nelson:
Sure, sure.
Gary Determan:
All right, thank you so much. Enjoy another party tonight.
David Nelson:
Thank you, Gary. Appreciate it.
Thank you. So, yeah, let me know. I mean, it’s January 1st. I’m going to be here.
Announcer:
Financial Focus is a production of NelsonCorp Wealth Management in Clinton and Davenport. The opinions voiced in the show are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Any indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Registered representatives, securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Inc., a broker-dealer, member of FINRA, SIPC, investment advisor representative Cambridge Investment Research Advisors Inc. A registered investment advisor, Cambridge and NelsonCorp Wealth Management are not affiliated. Cambridge does not offer tax advice. For more information, visit our website at www.NelsonCorp.com.