Announcer:
It’s time now on KROS for Financial Focus, brought to you by NelsonCorp Wealth Management. The opinions voiced in this show are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Any indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Registered representatives securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Incorporated, a broker/dealer, member FINRA, SIPC. Investment advisor representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors Incorporated, a registered investment advisor. Cambridge and NelsonCorp Wealth Management are not affiliated. Cambridge does not offer tax advice. Now, here’s today’s Financial Focus program.
Gary Determan:
And good morning, it is the first Wednesday of the month, so Dave Nelson joining me, not in studio, however coming to us by phone. How are you doing, Dave?
David Nelson:
I’m doing great, Gary. Thank you. How about you?
Gary Determan:
Not too bad. Not too bad.
David Nelson:
Did you get out early this morning, get a little exercise in that 40 degree weather?
Gary Determan:
No, I come to work at about five o’clock, so it’s pretty hard to get up that early to get some exercise in. But I do my running around here at the studio, getting things together, doing that way. What about you? It was chilly.
David Nelson:
Oh, was chilly. Nice surprise. I mean, I enjoy it, I have to admit that. But yeah, 40, 42 I think when I went out this morning. So yeah, little change.
Gary Determan:
Did the dogs enjoy it?
David Nelson:
The dog enjoys it very much so. Yes. Like most dogs out there with their coats and whatever, a little cool weather feels pretty good, so yes, absolutely.
Gary Determan:
So I know you’re always a busy man. I was just thinking of this, who puts your schedule together?
David Nelson:
Multiple people. Val primarily, is mostly responsible for it, but yeah, again, it’s a great problem to have as far as being on the go. Today, I’m heading down to Davenport. I’ve got multiple meetings as far as down here. So hopefully, the clarity and the quality of the call is good today because I am calling from my car and I’m watching the road and trying not to get speeding tickets and all that good stuff. So anyway.
Gary Determan:
No, the quality sounds very good. We’re going to have a good program.
David Nelson:
Good.
Gary Determan:
So of course, you are based here in Clinton. You kind of got your start here in Clinton, but it’s interesting you’re going to Davenport. You do have other satellite offices?
David Nelson:
Yes. So the main ones that we work out of would be out of the Dubuque office, the Clinton office, and the Davenport office. We’ve got give or take, I think now about 3,300 clients that we work with, that we’re responsible for as far as in this area. Then we’ve got satellite offices. The furthest is Honolulu. We’ve got one in Kansas, we’ve got Des Moines, and then north to Chicago. And so those offices are run day to day by individuals that are in that area. But we do the behind-the-scenes type things, compliance and money management primarily. And they do the interfacing as far as with their clients as far as on a day to day basis.
So it’s a good relationship. We’ve spent a fortune as far as in money management. We’ve had fortunately, some really good calls, good decisions that we’ve made. And so we go to various conferences and gatherings and you come across people that are lacking in certain areas and they hear some of the things that we’re doing. And every one of those has approached us to say, we’d like to form some type of partnership with you.
And so it’s been a good relationship for us, for them. They can focus on trying to put together good financial plans, communicate it to the clients. Meanwhile, they’ve got people behind the scenes in Clinton, Iowa that are helping make some of those tough decisions, making sure that all the regulations are followed and done correctly. And so that’s pretty much the role that we play as far as for the offices at quite a distance.
Gary Determan:
To you and the people that you have assembled here in Clinton, Dubuque, and Davenport, to be able to have the trust of these people. And as you said, they are coming to you?
David Nelson:
Once again, I reiterate, we’re so blessed as far as in that regard, we made some horrible decisions through the years as far as from a business perspective. I spent a lot of time, Gary, I think I probably shared this with you before, but a gentleman up in Canada that’s more or less a coach, he’s a business coach, so you pay him a whole bunch of money, and I mean a whole bunch of money per day to spend time with him. And he pretty much smacks you around, tells you all the stupid stuff you’re doing, whatever, whatever. But the conclusion of all of it, and it was three different sessions that I had over a year and I wrote this guy this big check to have him basically conclude and say that you’re good at two things you got to figure out what those two things are.
And so for me it was interfacing with clients. Without patting myself on the back here, I think I have a really nice skill of taking some of these complex issues and some of the stuff that most people can’t relate to and we could basically simplify it to try to help them make better decisions as far as in their life.
And then the second one is, and it has nothing to do with personnel because I’m really bad at managing personnel, but it’s more of being able to communicate this to the general public. So hence, I’m doing this type of program here. We do a lot of TV type of segments and whatever. And with the goal of being, helping a lot of people out there that won’t necessarily ever probably work with us, giving them a second opinion, giving those individuals some very generic advice, I guess, I go to ’07, ’08 as probably being the most rewarding one. And that was, we spoke a lot about the troubles ahead of what we believe. Obviously nobody has the crystal ball to know the day of the week, but we have a lot of really, really good tools that can help us make better decisions for our clients, whether we want to own a lot of stocks or just a few stocks, maybe no stocks at this point in time because the risk that exists.
And so we are able to communicate that in a very, again, generic way as far as via the radio program at that point in time. And then workshops that we did to the general public. And we think we save people a whole bunch of money. And again, the rewarding thing is as a small business owner, I’m very sympathetic to businesses and the ups and the downs that they go through, and so, as I explain to people in a very, again, general way is that if we saved people a whole bunch of money during that crises.
And again reminding people, ’07, ’08 and early ’09, the stock market, the S&P 500 dropped 57%. Well, that huge drop that took place, the [inaudible 00:07:30] was, that would’ve really affected a lot of local businesses because if people have less money in their pocket, obviously they’re not going to the restaurants like they used to. They’re not buying new vehicles, they’re not spending money. And so the ripple effect that took place during that period of time, we feel like we made a big, big difference as far as in people’s lives and subsequently, a lot of local businesses are better off because of it.
We don’t think we’re at another one of those junctures. We’re not necessarily sold that things are going to go continue to go straight up, but at the end of the day, job to communicate-
Gary Determan:
Dave, are you there? We lost-
David Nelson:
… again and keeping us out of jail, keeping us in a position of helping our clients make better decisions.
Gary Determan:
Okay, again, we’re visiting Dave Nelson live. He’s coming to us via his automobile and you can pat yourself on the back, but might be difficult keeping both hands on the wheel, Dave.
David Nelson:
Right now I don’t want to do that. Yes, I’m keeping a close eye out on the road and making sure again, that the speedometer, I keep that thing, I put the cruise control on, just to make sure
Gary Determan:
That’s a good idea. So in a couple of minutes, we’re going to be taking a break for the weather and then we’ll get into the second half of the program. Now, we will not visit with you again until after the general election. So that could be an interesting program, Dave?
David Nelson:
Yeah, I think it will be. And even, I’m not sure we’re going to know the answer as far as what’s taken place, some of the stuff that’s being proposed in some law that says that we got to count by hand. So we’ll have to see, Gary. I’m hopeful that this goes smoother than the last election.
And again, we could talk about the pros, the cons, what it looks like at that point in time. But it’s an interesting time and with all the happenings around the globe, a lot of people I’m sure out there that are looking for some black and white answers and unfortunately, there’s a lot of gray right now. And again, we can get to some of that as far as the second half as well.
Gary Determan:
All right, well let’s go ahead and take that break for the weather now. It is being brought to you by Vans Carpet Corner.
Announcer:
Dry skies, and even a warmer temperature pattern on track for your Wednesday, mostly sunny conditions. Still a good breeze, though today it’s out of the southwest, which means temperatures will head for low eighties as we go into this afternoon. Still quiet, cool, calm, tonight will drop into the low forties.
Gary Determan:
Currently sunshine, we’re at 53 degrees of south winds just starting to pick up just a little bit, around five to 10 miles per hour. Once again, 53 degrees, our update brought to you by Vans Carpet Corner.
Announcer:
Give your home a new look with these exclusive offers from Vans Carpet Corner in Fulton, they offer a great selection of heavyweight luxury carpet. Get new rolls of multicolored carpeting installed over pad, starting at 2.45 a square foot. 12 colors of luxury vinyl plank only 2.89 a square foot until gone. Carpet and vinyl remnants for as low as 99 cents a square foot, material only. Hurry in to Vans Carpet Corner, 1430 10th Avenue in Fulton phone (815) 208-7020.
Gary Determan:
First Wednesday of the month. So we continue on with Financial Focus presented by NelsonCorp Wealth Management following our weather update. He’s on the road and every once in a while you hit a dead spot out there, Dave. But otherwise you sound pretty good.
David Nelson:
Shoot, sorry about that. I was hoping that things would work out well today, but I’ll do the best I can to try to fill in the blanks as far as if something that you missed, jump in and tell me and I’ll try to backtrack.
Gary Determan:
All right, very good. So what are we working on here in the second half of the program?
David Nelson:
I think the most important thing, Gary, is to, people are I’m sure wondering as far as what does this mean as far as, we’ve had good news as far as interest rates dropping. I mean, again, I spent a lot of time talking about that type of stuff and the typical ripple effect that takes place there, leading up to the cuts. And then once the cuts start, that’s generally speaking, pretty good news.
And I want to emphasize here that if there’s multiple cuts and I’m talking about multiple ones, pretty rapid type cuts taking place, then we want to be a little concerned because again, typically, that’s going to imply recession and recession typically, is going to imply that markets are going to move the wrong direction and that is down, as far as stocks I’m talking about specifically. So we’ve had good news in that space.
Now it’s a question of some of the global aspects that are taking place. And as everybody I’m sure, has seen by now some of the footage that’s taken place as far as with the bombs being dropped, as far as in both directions going out and coming in, as far as from Israel’s standpoint. What impact is that going to have as far as in the markets? And the surprising thing I think to a lot of people is that it really yesterday had very little impact. The market dropped but it only dropped, depending on what index you looked at, a half percent to maybe 1%. So pretty trivial in the big scheme of things.
What was interesting also is that you didn’t see oil spike in any massive way. This morning, it’s dropped some, as far as the market, the cost of oil has gone up and subsequently, again, not necessarily what we want to see as far as when we go to the pump. But still, nevertheless it’s been pretty minimal in comparison to what most people would perceive that would be taking place.
What’s also, the last thing here, and then I’ll zip it, Gary, I’ll let you jump in, but the last one is interest rates as far as on primarily government bonds, when there’s risk out there, that increases dramatically. And typically some event like what we’re talking about now, some striking of countries as far as war potentially breaking out. Generally speaking, people run from risk assets, pretty much stocks and real estate and they run towards bonds. And typically you’re talking about government bonds, not necessarily corporate bonds, but government bonds.
And so what we saw yesterday and again this morning we’re seeing a little bit, pretty calm as far as in that space. Again, dropped a little bit, interest rates dropped a little bit, which again, if you’re a bond holder, that was actually pretty good news for you, but at the end of the day, it’s been pretty minimal. So we’ll see as far as what takes place. Israel has pretty much come to the table and said we’re going to strike back and it’s hard to say as far as what’s going to come out of that. But hopefully again, from investment perspective that individuals look at this and make rational decisions and we don’t jump to conclusions and make any dumb moves.
Gary Determan:
Again, busy with Dave Nelson live on today’s program. Dave, when do we hear from the Fed again? Will it be after the general election?
David Nelson:
Well, they can always intervene, Gary, as far as if they feel the need to, as far as it, have a meeting prior to the upcoming meeting. But pretty much right now, most of the experts and the experts aren’t always right, but if you take the average of the experts, they’re saying that we’ll have an additional 50 point cut. In other words, a half percent cut yet this year.
Now, it’ll probably come, Gary, in the form of two cuts, a quarter percent and another quarter percent. Time will tell. Again, we’ve got a jobs report that’s coming out this Friday that’s a pretty important number. And depending on what unfolds there, we’ve got the crises down in the southeast of the country, that’s certainly going to have impact as far as unemployment with the hurricane going through. So there’s a lot of things that could happen between now and then, but again, I’m leaning towards a quarter percent cut times two as far as for the balance of this year. And then we’ll see in 2025 as far as what unfolds there.
Obviously things can change, but if I were a betting person and I’m not, I would say a quarter percent cut times two and that’ll be the extent of it for ’24.
Gary Determan:
Dave, what are some of the factors that plays into whether or not it’s going to be a quarter or a half percent?
David Nelson:
Typically, it all comes back to data and with the data that the Fed is looking at. And what’s interesting, I think most people believe that they have some special sauce or whatever of data that they get. Literally, every piece of data that they look at is available to whoever wants to spend the money to buy it. And there’s a lot of different companies out there that compile this data, some of which we buy the data from as well.
And the hope is that you can get just that little extra edge and try to again, get ahead of the market, make a really good call as far as prior to that. History says that’s really, really tough to do. History also says you’re going to lose probably more than you’re going to gain for that occasional one that you get right versus the ones that you get wrong.
So it goes back to another term that we use as far as on this program a lot and that’s don’t fight the Fed and go with a trend. And by fighting the Fed, what we’re talking about is if the Fed is in a cutting mode, historically that’s really good for stocks and so you want to basically look at risk assets and probably acquire them.
Again, I got to have all my qualifiers in here and I’ll use the term probably. Probably the market’s going to go up in that situation. You’re going to see interest rates probably down in that situation. So again, the Fed looks at a whole bunch of different things. They try to make the decisions, seeing how important the decision is, if the Fed feels like the market is accelerating too rapidly, they’re going to start raising interest rates rapidly. And the same would be true in the reverse. If it looks like it’s starting to come unglued, the Fed’s going to cut and to answer your question, as far as a quarter or half a point will dictate what their data is showing. Hey, it’s really slowing down rapidly. We better get after this quickly and cut a half a percent versus a quarter percent.
Now, they could even go above a half percent too. We’ve seen that before. We saw it on the increases when the rates were going up, we saw 75 point, 0.75% cut, or increase. And so they could do the same on the downside, but if you look at the economy, it’s still running along at a really good pace. And so I think that the best odds clearly today, say a quarter percent cut on the next time that the Fed reconvenes is probably a good belief system that that’s what’s going to take place.
Gary Determan:
Well, here we are in October, so we are getting to the final quarter of the year. Of course, you got your calendar year, you got your fiscal year, people break it down into quarter of the year. How do you guys play it?
David Nelson:
Well, typically, we try to think, I mean as far as from an investment perspective, we think in terms of a 12-month rolling. So there’s no magic to the 12/31 or 1/1, we want people to kind of, instead of looking at something under a microscope, we try to get them to think in terms of the odometer in the car. It’s a little longer. It’s really more important as far as to look over a period of time. And even one year, many will argue is too short a period of time.
But for most individuals, again, they focus on would we do year to date? We try to again, get them away from that to think in terms of 12 month rolling, here’s what we’ve done as far as looking back 12 months to today, here’s where we were, here’s where we are. And it seems to again, make it a little easier for individuals to think a little more long term versus we’re in February and what have we done year to date? That type of scenario is not a healthy mindset when you talk about investing.
Savings type accounts, you may get away with that, but when you talk about investment accounts, they’re going to bump around a little bit. There just no getting around it. It’s like when we ask people, what’s the value of your house today? And people have this puzzled look on their face, we say, you don’t know exactly, do you? Because again, the value of your home is only what somebody will pay you for it. So until you go to sell it, you don’t really know what it’s worth.
So in many ways, that’s a good thing because they’re not looking at it every single day. Unlike investments, oftentimes people will look at their stuff on a very regular basis, which again, we tell them isn’t healthy, just forget about it, we’ll talk about it 12 months from now. And when it’s all said and done, that’s better advice emotionally as well as financially for them.
Gary Determan:
We got about five minutes left in the program. We really do appreciate your time. So are you still driving or have you pulled into a parking lot?
David Nelson:
I’m still driving, Gary.
Gary Determan:
Okay.
David Nelson:
I’m about, looks like about three blocks away from the office.
Gary Determan:
Oh my goodness.
David Nelson:
I’ll sit there and we’ll chat, so no problem.
Gary Determan:
All right, very good. So when you decide to expand like that and to have an actual physical building, talk about that aspect of it?
David Nelson:
Yeah, we rented down here. For those that are clients out there, they probably know this, we rented by the State House, forget the name now, heck, doesn’t matter. Anyway, just right on 53rd. We did that for a number of years, I think it was 12, 13 years. And we just got to a size where it just wasn’t cutting it. And so we had a decision, we’re either going to build or we’re going to go somewhere else and we’re going to rent a piece of property or a location from somebody else.
And so we just decided that we’re down here, we’re committed to the area, we’re going to continue to be committed to the area, so we’re just going to put up our own building. And we’re a little different in this regard too. We don’t like to look at, the cookie cutter stuff doesn’t do much for us. And so bottom line, we wanted something unusual, something different, and subsequently it didn’t exist down here. So we built, and we’re just now, we’ve got the accounting down here, we’ve got the estate planning as well as here and now we’ve got the wealth management as far as here, same thing as we have in Clinton. And it’s just working really, really well.
And again, we’ve got room to expand down here, we’re in no hurry as far to rent it. We put up a place that was basically 50% bigger than we needed at that point in time. But without knowing as far as what’s going to happen, we played it safe and we didn’t want to do what we had to do in Clinton, and that was we had one building and then decided, hey, business is just, we don’t have room for the heads that we need here. So we had another building attached to two buildings and so we didn’t want to, that was tough to go through as far as that process. The builders did everything they could to try to minimize it, but it was very stressful for quite some time.
So we’ve got plenty of space down here. And again, we’ll either rent it out or we’ll use it ourselves. Again, we’ve only had this building, I don’t even remember now, I’m going to say two, three years, somewhere in that ballpark. And things are going really, really well.
Gary Determan:
Well, that is great to hear. Again, thank you so much for your time. Sounds like you drove very carefully.
David Nelson:
I did, yes.
Gary Determan:
All right, very good.
David Nelson:
I’ve had too many speeding tickets through the years, Gary, like I’m sure many people out there can relate to. So yeah, I played it safe today.
Gary Determan:
All right, very good. Hey, we will talk to you again when we get into November. And thank you again, so much for your time, David.
David Nelson:
Sounds good, Gary. Thank you. Have a good day, buddy.
Announcer:
Financial Focus is a production of NelsonCorp Wealth Management in Clinton and Davenport. The opinions voiced in the show are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Any indices mentioned are unmanaged and cannot invested into directly. Registered representatives securities offered through Cambridge Investment Research Incorporated, a broker/dealer, member FINRA, SIPC. Investment advisor representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors Incorporated, a registered investment advisor. Cambridge and NelsonCorp Wealth Management are not affiliated. Cambridge does not offer tax advice. For more information, visit our website at www.nelsoncorp.com.