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Redrick Terry: It is now time for 4 Your Money. We’re joined by David Nelson, CEO of Nelson Corp. Of Wealth Management. David, welcome back.
David Nelson: Happy to be here. Thank you.
Redrick Terry: Absolutely. We’re happy to have you here. We’re talking about uncertainty this week. (Takes in breath) Certainly nothing new with government shutdowns, trade tariffs, taxes. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty going around.
How does this compare when, uh, talking about years past?
David Nelson: Well, as slide one will uh, will visually show us here: we look over a period of time what we find is that we, we’ve had some bumps along the way. But what we experience as far as towards the tail end here is pretty significant.
We’re, we’re in the high uncertainty territory. Again, it has to do with what you just brought up as far as the, the tariffs, the the China issues as far as over there… Brexit. All of these things are really significant. And when you get into this high uncertainty, basically corporations will often times back off or they won’t be investing like they would otherwise.
This is not what we want to see as far as in this type of a situation as far as up here. Doesn’t mean markets are gonna roll over, but it’s not necessarily good news.
Redrick Terry: And talking impacts, both globally and here, uh, what are we talking about when we see uncertainty?
David Nelson: (slight breath) Slide two will uh, will will visually show that. The top is lookin’ at the global, kind of everything shoved together as far as one. Again we see a few spikes along the way here. And we see this dramatic move here.
Now, if we look as far as a number two, that’s China, which is in red here, er orange, uh bottom line massive move up here. And very predictable as far as through the years.
Again, we’re going back to the 90’s as far as on the, on this particular one. And then the bottom, we’re looking at the, the the UK. And the UK, we’ve had this huge spike in ’16, things have calmed down just a little bit here. But this Brexit is a big, big item. And again, the uncertainty that exists out there can create opportunities. But, but for many individuals its a time as far as to be concerned about this.
And probably not be too bold.
Redrick Terry: Yeah definitely. So what are some other ways that you can look at uncertainty?
David Nelson: So City Group. This would be slide three. City Group has puts together an economic surprise index. And this index has been pretty remarkably good as far as trying to make some calls on, on, on just what you brought up. And that is, it’s, we had this spike in ’16 and ’17.
And what we find is that things are actually calming down a little bit. The surprise has to do with, uh, earnings primarily. As far as our companies surprising. On the upside, our up companies surprising on the downside. And what we find as far as in recent times is that it’s been more predicable.
The hope is that this, this trend certainly continues, but there’s no assurance as far as that that’s going to happen.
Redrick Terry: Always some important information, David. We thank you so much for joining us, as always.
David Nelson: Yes. Thank you, Redrick. Appreciate it.
Redrick Terry: Of course. And if you missed any part of our conversation, we will make it available to you on our website: ourquadcities.com.
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