Speedy Delivery

Speedy Delivery

    Supply chain stresses are getting better. That’s the message from this week’s featured chart, highlighted above, showing various regional Fed manufacturing indexes of supplier delivery times. Supplier delivery times are one of the most important economic...
Hot Commodities

Hot Commodities

  This week’s featured indicator uses the Reuters-CRB Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) to measure inflationary pressures and how that affects stock prices. The CCI represents the average price of 17 commodities. It includes many of the major commodities we are...
Confirmation

Confirmation

OVERVIEW   The best week since June. That’s what the U.S. stock market delivered last week, as investors embraced the prospect of falling inflation and a potential deceleration in the Fed’s rate hike cycle. The S&P 500 Index of large-cap U.S. stocks surged...
On the MOVE

On the MOVE

  This week’s featured chart is the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a well-known measure of U.S. interest rate volatility. Specifically, the MOVE Index calculates future volatility in U.S. Treasury yields implied by prices of one-month options on Treasuries of various...
It’s All Relative

It’s All Relative

  For this week’s indicator, we feature a chart showing the relative valuation of stock dividends and Treasury bond yields. The idea behind the indicator is that stocks and bonds compete for investor dollars. So by comparing their yields, we can get a sense of...