Anchors Aweigh

Anchors Aweigh

  This week’s chart is all about expectations. Inflation expectations, to be exact. It’s an important and timely topic because inflation expectations are just as important, if not more important, than actual inflation itself. That’s because beliefs shape...
The Four Headwinds

The Four Headwinds

  With everything going on in the world right now—the conflict in Iran, oil prices surging, stocks selling off—it can be hard to know what to actually focus on. So this week, rather than zooming in on just one data point, I want to share a chart that I think does...
The Oil Omen

The Oil Omen

  This week, I want to revisit a chart that we featured on the blog around this time last year. It shows the year-over-year change in WTI crude oil prices going back decades. In simple terms, it measures how much oil prices have risen over the past 12 months....
Too Much Debt

Too Much Debt

  Too much debt can create problems. That’s true for individuals, corporations, and—it turns out—even the stock market. This week’s chart illustrates why. The chart above compares the S&P 500 stock index (gold line, top) to margin debt levels (green line,...
VIX Playbook

VIX Playbook

  When markets come under pressure like they have in recent weeks, I always find it helpful to consult what we call the “VIX Playbook.” It’s based on the CBOE Volatility Index, or what you might have heard referred to as Wall Street’s “Fear Gauge.” It measures...
It’s Been a While

It’s Been a While

  It’s been a while since we’ve seen a meaningful pullback in the stock market. Specifically, our chart above shows that it’s been 206 days since the last time the Nasdaq-100—the tech-heavy U.S. stock index—declined more than 10% from a high, the fourth longest...