Regime Change

Regime Change

  We’re heading into a pretty interesting time for monetary policy. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair is set to end on May 15, and Kevin Warsh, the incoming nominee, just went through his Senate confirmation hearing this week. He described the transition with an...
High Expectations

High Expectations

  Well, here’s something you probably wouldn’t have expected given everything going on in the world right now: stock market analysts are actually raising their earnings forecasts. This week’s chart tracks how 12-month earnings expectations have...
The Guidance Gap

The Guidance Gap

  When it comes to earnings estimates (or guidance), companies like to set the bar low. It’s easier to clear the bar that way. It’s pretty much a corporate tradition at this point. So when they start raising the bar on themselves, it really gets our attention....
Anchors Aweigh

Anchors Aweigh

  This week’s chart is all about expectations. Inflation expectations, to be exact. It’s an important and timely topic because inflation expectations are just as important, if not more important, than actual inflation itself. That’s because beliefs shape...
The Four Headwinds

The Four Headwinds

  With everything going on in the world right now—the conflict in Iran, oil prices surging, stocks selling off—it can be hard to know what to actually focus on. So this week, rather than zooming in on just one data point, I want to share a chart that I think does...
The Oil Omen

The Oil Omen

  This week, I want to revisit a chart that we featured on the blog around this time last year. It shows the year-over-year change in WTI crude oil prices going back decades. In simple terms, it measures how much oil prices have risen over the past 12 months....