Soldiers and Generals

Soldiers and Generals

  There are a few different ways you can construct an index of stocks. One approach—the most common method—is market-cap weighting, also known as cap-weighted. This gives the largest companies a bigger influence on performance, meaning their returns carry the...
The Boy Who Cried Recession

The Boy Who Cried Recession

  For decades, the yield curve has been one of Wall Street’s favorite recession warning signs. Specifically, I’m talking about the difference between 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields. When short-term rates rise above long-term rates, the curve “inverts,”...
Fear of Heights

Fear of Heights

  Most people have an instinct that buying stocks at all-time highs is a bad idea. Sure, I get it. It kind of feels like showing up late to the party. But as this week’s chart shows, you probably don’t need to be afraid. The chart comes from Goldman Sachs...
Regime Change

Regime Change

  We’re heading into a pretty interesting time for monetary policy. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair is set to end on May 15, and Kevin Warsh, the incoming nominee, just went through his Senate confirmation hearing this week. He described the transition with an...
High Expectations

High Expectations

  Well, here’s something you probably wouldn’t have expected given everything going on in the world right now: stock market analysts are actually raising their earnings forecasts. This week’s chart tracks how 12-month earnings expectations have...
The Guidance Gap

The Guidance Gap

  When it comes to earnings estimates (or guidance), companies like to set the bar low. It’s easier to clear the bar that way. It’s pretty much a corporate tradition at this point. So when they start raising the bar on themselves, it really gets our attention....