Line in the Sand

Line in the Sand

  There’s kind of an odd thing happening in the stock market right now. A lot of the indicators we follow have weakened over the past several weeks. Breadth has thinned, interest rates and oil continue to be trouble, and sentiment isn’t exactly cooperating. And...
No Stress

No Stress

  Last week, the question came up of whether tighter credit conditions are starting to create risk for the market. It’s a fair question. The Fed just raised rates for the first time in years, and credit usually tightens when that happens. So this week, I want to...
Crude Awakening

Crude Awakening

  Well, there’s no doubt about it. Oil has been a—if not the—story of the year. So this week, I want to look at what a big move in oil prices has historically meant for stocks. Now, most people feel oil prices at the gas pump. But investors feel them somewhere...
Home Field Disadvantage

Home Field Disadvantage

  This week, I want to step outside the stock and bond markets and talk about the U.S. dollar. The dollar doesn’t tend to get the same attention as the stock market, but it touches almost everything in a portfolio. A weaker dollar tends to help international...
The Unloved Asset

The Unloved Asset

  Most of the time when we talk about investor sentiment, we talk about it in terms of one market at a time. Are investors too excited about stocks? Too gloomy about bonds? This week’s indicator asks a different question: how does the mood in one market compare...
Sold Out

Sold Out

  With second-quarter earnings season just about wrapped up, I want to use this week’s indicator to look at something a little different than earnings: sales. Why sales? Because earnings can be shaped by all sorts of things—cost cutting, buybacks, accounting...