Covering the Spread
The idea behind this week’s indicator is that corporate bond spreads can be used to anticipate changes in stock market earnings. This is because, historically, widening spreads are associated with economic weakness and poor earnings growth rates, while...
Breadth & Seasonality
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market bounced back last week as expected volatility, measured by the VIX Index, fell about 11% to 20.42. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Dow gained 1.8%, and the Nasdaq increased 0.7%. Foreign stocks, however, were mixed for the week....
Mixed Sentiment
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market had a down week, with the S&P 500 Index falling 0.69%, the Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down just 0.01%. Foreign stocks, on the other hand, were up for the week. The MSCI EAFE Index of...
Speedy Delivery
Supply chain stresses are getting better. That’s the message from this week’s featured chart, highlighted above, showing various regional Fed manufacturing indexes of supplier delivery times. Supplier delivery times are one of the most important economic...
Hot Commodities
This week’s featured indicator uses the Reuters-CRB Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) to measure inflationary pressures and how that affects stock prices. The CCI represents the average price of 17 commodities. It includes many of the major commodities we are...
Confirmation
OVERVIEW The best week since June. That’s what the U.S. stock market delivered last week, as investors embraced the prospect of falling inflation and a potential deceleration in the Fed’s rate hike cycle. The S&P 500 Index of large-cap U.S. stocks surged...
On the MOVE
This week’s featured chart is the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a well-known measure of U.S. interest rate volatility. Specifically, the MOVE Index calculates future volatility in U.S. Treasury yields implied by prices of one-month options on Treasuries of various...
It’s All Relative
For this week’s indicator, we feature a chart showing the relative valuation of stock dividends and Treasury bond yields. The idea behind the indicator is that stocks and bonds compete for investor dollars. So by comparing their yields, we can get a sense of...
Cumulative Tightening—But Not Yet!
OVERVIEW U.S. stocks fell last week, with the S&P 500 declining by 3.4%. The index is now up 5.4% from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03 and down 21.3% from its January 3 closing high of 4,796.56. The Dow Jones Industrial Average did relatively better,...
Dow on Top
This week’s featured chart compares the annualized returns of two of the most popular stock mark indexes in the United States: The NASDAQ Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The blue line represents the annualized returns of the NASDAQ composite...
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