Entrenched Inflation
Inflation has been a thorn in the side of the stock market all year. This week, we found out that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—a commonly used measure of inflation—dropped to an 8.3% year-over-year rate in August versus the 8.52% rate in July and the 9.06%...
High but Falling Inflation
This week's featured indicator examines the relationship between stock performance and inflation in the U.S. The indicator uses two main inputs: the year-to-year change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the six-month smoothing or average of the CPI....
Head, Shoulders – Knees and Toes?
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market snapped a three-week losing streak on a holiday-shortened week last week. The S&P 500 gained 3.65%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite popped 4.14%. Growth stocks led the way, gaining 4.11%....
Belt Tightening
This week’s chart shows the change in the U.S. federal budget going back to 1973. In the middle clip, we have the rolling 12-month total federal budget, with positive values indicating a budget surplus and negative values indicating a budget deficit. The red...
What the Manufacturers Pay
Every month, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) conducts surveys of purchasing managers at hundreds of manufacturing firms in the U.S. and compiles the results into an index. Among the various sub-indices in the report is an index that measures the prices...
A Rude Awakening
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market continued to sell off last week, with the S&P 500 falling 3.29%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 2.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunging 4.21%. Foreign stocks slipped up as well. Developed country stocks fell 3.13%,...
Not So Terrible Twos
The 2-year Treasury note’s yield made the news this week when it rose to roughly 3.5%, its highest level since 2007. This is significant because it is currently one of the highest yielding bonds on the Treasury yield curve, shown as the green line on the chart...
Too Much of a Good Thing
Volume—or the number of shares traded in the stock market—is an important metric for financial markets. We look at volume because, in general, when a rising stock has a lot of volume, it’s a sign of strength. But when the stock is falling on a lot of volume, it...
More Work to Be Done
OVERVIEW The major U.S. stock market indices ended the week down over 4% after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole event on Friday. The S&P 500 Index fell 4.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.22%, and the...
Stress Free
This week’s chart is the St. Louis Financial Stress Index. It was first published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in 2010—with data going back to 1993—to better gauge levels of financial stress in the system in the aftermath of the 2008 financial...
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