Rejected
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market stumbled last week as volatility came rushing back to Wall Street. The S&P 500 Index slipped 3.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4%. Foreign stocks, however, were mixed. The MSCI...
Feels Longer Than It Is
The S&P 500 Index is a popular stock market index often used to measure the overall health of the U.S. stock market. One way to gauge the strength of the market is to look at the number of days the index spends below its prior high. As I’ve pointed out on...
Meeting the Trendline
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market continued to rally last week, with the S&P 500 Index gaining 1.13%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.09%. Foreign stocks were also up on the week, with the MSCI EAFE Index of...
Gone Global
We’ve talked some this year about the U.S. yield curve and how its inversion is signaling that a recession could be right around the corner. But it’s not just a U.S. problem. Global bonds joined the party this week. The chart above shows that the average yield...
Covering the Spread
The idea behind this week’s indicator is that corporate bond spreads can be used to anticipate changes in stock market earnings. This is because, historically, widening spreads are associated with economic weakness and poor earnings growth rates, while...
Breadth & Seasonality
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market bounced back last week as expected volatility, measured by the VIX Index, fell about 11% to 20.42. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Dow gained 1.8%, and the Nasdaq increased 0.7%. Foreign stocks, however, were mixed for the week....
Mixed Sentiment
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market had a down week, with the S&P 500 Index falling 0.69%, the Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down just 0.01%. Foreign stocks, on the other hand, were up for the week. The MSCI EAFE Index of...
Speedy Delivery
Supply chain stresses are getting better. That’s the message from this week’s featured chart, highlighted above, showing various regional Fed manufacturing indexes of supplier delivery times. Supplier delivery times are one of the most important economic...
Hot Commodities
This week’s featured indicator uses the Reuters-CRB Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) to measure inflationary pressures and how that affects stock prices. The CCI represents the average price of 17 commodities. It includes many of the major commodities we are...
Confirmation
OVERVIEW The best week since June. That’s what the U.S. stock market delivered last week, as investors embraced the prospect of falling inflation and a potential deceleration in the Fed’s rate hike cycle. The S&P 500 Index of large-cap U.S. stocks surged...
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