The Long and the Short of It

The Long and the Short of It

  There’s been a bit of chatter lately about 30-year Treasury yields and the fact that they have been inching up towards 5%. As a reminder, the 30-year Treasury yield is the interest the U.S. government promises to pay you each year if you let them borrow your...
Come Together

Come Together

  Something a bit unusual is happening in financial markets right now. The income, or “yield,” you can earn from stocks, bonds, and even real estate (REITs) has all started to look the same. That doesn’t happen very often. This week’s chart shows what I mean....
Coins in the Couch Cushion

Coins in the Couch Cushion

  There’s an interesting development happening in financial markets right now. Sure, it’s a little boring and technical, but it centers on something called the Reverse Repo Facility. I like to think of it as financial markets’ version of coins in the couch...
Setting Expectations

Setting Expectations

  Despite all the headlines and big-picture drama this year, the stock market has been quietly following the historical, seasonal playbook pretty closely. As this week’s chart shows, the S&P 500’s path in 2025 has lined up closely with what typically happens...
Pressure Cooker

Pressure Cooker

    The bond market is sending a clear message: it’s time for the Fed to start thinking about rate cuts. The chart above compares the 2-Year Treasury yield with the Federal Funds Rate, and right now, the 2-Year is trading well below the Fed’s upper...
I Dissent!

I Dissent!

Cracks are starting to show inside the Federal Reserve, with multiple members breaking from the pack for the first time in over 30 years. Check out this week’s chart for a peek at the shift starting to form inside the Fed.