Setting Expectations
Despite all the headlines and big-picture drama this year, the stock market has been quietly following the historical, seasonal playbook pretty closely. As this week’s chart shows, the S&P 500’s path in 2025 has lined up closely with what typically happens...
Pressure Cooker
The bond market is sending a clear message: it’s time for the Fed to start thinking about rate cuts. The chart above compares the 2-Year Treasury yield with the Federal Funds Rate, and right now, the 2-Year is trading well below the Fed’s upper...
I Dissent!
Cracks are starting to show inside the Federal Reserve, with multiple members breaking from the pack for the first time in over 30 years. Check out this week’s chart for a peek at the shift starting to form inside the Fed.
The World Reprices
Yields are up, but stocks don’t seem to care. This week’s chart unpacks the disconnect.
Tracking the Cycle
Can seasonality tell us anything useful about the future course of the stock market? Check out this week’s chart, where we breakdown the Cycle Composite for 2025.