The Rally Fills Out

The Rally Fills Out

  Coming into the new year, we wanted to see markets answer one simple question: Are stocks moving together, or is the rally being carried by just a handful of names? That distinction matters more than most investors realize. Broad participation is often the...
The 2026 Market Cycle

The 2026 Market Cycle

  Today officially marks the first day of the new year, so let’s take a look at the NDR Cycle Composite for 2026 to see what the new year has in store for us. Now, this is one of the tools we use to help set expectations, not to make predictions. It’s based...
Reading the Yield Curve

Reading the Yield Curve

  For this week’s indicator, we’re looking at a simple but powerful signal from the bond market called the yield curve. Don’t let the name scare you off. At its core, this indicator just compares two interest rates: the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and...
Real Rates and Risk Appetite

Real Rates and Risk Appetite

  A lot of the time, when talking about interest rates, we talk in nominal terms. Treasury yields, mortgage rates, whatever—the stated, headline rate is the nominal rate. These matter, because they are what borrowers actually pay and lenders actually receive....
As the VIX Turns

As the VIX Turns

  In the past we’ve talked about volatility and the different ways of measuring it. The VIX, or Wall Street’s “Fear Index,” is a popular measure because it tells us how much investors expect the stock market to swing over the coming month. It measures implied,...
Economic Limbo

Economic Limbo

  Every month the Institute for Supply Management releases two surveys that describe the state of the U.S. economy. One measures manufacturing activity and the other measures services. Average them together and you get what we call the ISM Composite Index, shown...