Estimating Earnings

Estimating Earnings

  Third quarter earnings season is upon us. So, for this week’s featured chart, we show the consensus estimates for year-over-year growth in S&P 500 reported earnings per share by calendar year. The two lines I want to focus on are the light blue and orange...
Hitting the Brakes

Hitting the Brakes

  Earnings are an important driver of stock market returns. But the stock market is a complicated beast—it doesn’t just trade off earnings growth alone. The key insight of this week’s featured indicator is that the market trades off the change in the...
Waypoints

Waypoints

OVERVIEW   Despite a volatile week, the major U.S. stock indices registered gains, snapping a three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.7%. Bonds were mixed, however. The...
Speed Kills

Speed Kills

  For this week’s featured chart, we want to highlight a theme that’s dominated the stock market this year. It has to do with the Fed, its rate-hiking cycle, and how that affects stock market returns. The chart shows that, historically, the speed at which the Fed...
Better Bargain

Better Bargain

  This week’s featured indicator looks at the stock market’s median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to measure valuation. For those unfamiliar, the P/E ratio is the price of a stock divided by its earnings per share. The higher the ratio, the more investors...