Searching for Recession

Searching for Recession

  Are we in a recession? Is a recession coming? These are the types of things people search for on the internet during times of economic uncertainty. In fact, as our featured chart above shows, when people have historically been nervous about the economy, they...
Disinflation

Disinflation

  The big economic news this week was the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday—and it was a good one. On a year-over-year basis, the headline CPI eased to 3.0% last month, the slowest pace since March 2021. This was a pivotal development for the...
Staying on Beat

Staying on Beat

  This week’s featured chart shows that the percentage of companies in the U.S. stock market-beating earnings expectations increased significantly in the first quarter of the year, breaking a prolonged downturn that started near the end of 2021. As the middle...
Equal Competition

Equal Competition

  This week’s chart features the yields of the three primary financial assets investors focus on: cash, bonds, and stocks. The green line represents the forward earnings yield for the S&P 500 (stocks), the gold line represents the yield on investment-grade...
Trouble Across the Pond

Trouble Across the Pond

  We’ve discussed how inflation seems to be moving in the right direction here in the U.S. But across the pond, things look more worrisome. The U.K. has the worst inflation problem of any major developed county, and last month, it got worse. As our featured chart...
Back in Black

Back in Black

  The stock market has been on quite the roller coaster ride since the Fed first started hiking rates last year to fight inflation. But, as our featured chart this week shows, the S&P 500 is finally back in the black for the first time since it originally...