Back to Normal

Back to Normal

  One of the weird things about the 2020 recession was that household balance sheets in the U.S. actually improved quite a bit. Not only did the personal savings rate skyrocket, but credit card debt plummeted as well. A combination of fiscal and monetary support...
The Powell Indicator

The Powell Indicator

  The U.S. job market reminds me of the way the character Mugatu describes the male fashion model Hansel in the 2001 film Zoolander. “So hot right now.” Currently, there are around 11.3 million open jobs in the United States, compared to just 6.2...
The Yield Curve Did What?

The Yield Curve Did What?

  Something weird happened in the bond market this week. The interest rate on the 3-year U.S. Treasury bond (2.35%) surpassed the rate of the longer-dated 10-year bond (2.34%). In the finance world, we call this an inverted yield curve. Usually, it’s the other...
Dot Plot Twist

Dot Plot Twist

  The big news this week came from the Federal Reserve. In an 8-1 vote, the Fed’s policymakers decided to raise their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point, the first increase since 2018. Additionally, they announced their plan to raise rates at...
Unhappy Meal

Unhappy Meal

  Our featured chart this week shows that groceries are getting more expensive worldwide, with food costs jumping to a record high last month. The World Bank’s Food Price Index, a measure of global food prices, climbed 5.68% from last month and 21.01% from a year...
From Ruble to Rubble

From Ruble to Rubble

  For this week’s Chart of the Week, we show the return of the MSCI Russia Index, a broad gauge of the Russian stock market. Due to crippling sanctions from the western world, the Russian stock market is now effectively uninvestable and illiquid. As you can see...