More Puts Than Calls

More Puts Than Calls

  Let’s say you’re an investor, and you want to place a bullish bet on the stock market. One way to do this would be to buy a call option. The value of a call option goes up when the price of a stock (or stock index) goes up—and it does so at a faster rate than...
Recession Probability

Recession Probability

  This week’s indicator looks at the yield curve and how its shape can be used to anticipate when an economic recession is becoming more likely. The portion of the yield curve that it focuses on is the 10-year Treasury rate and the 3-month Treasury rate. The New...
Too Much of a Good Thing

Too Much of a Good Thing

  Volume—or the number of shares traded in the stock market—is an important metric for financial markets. We look at volume because, in general, when a rising stock has a lot of volume, it’s a sign of strength. But when the stock is falling on a lot of volume, it...
Banking Liquidity

Banking Liquidity

  This week’s featured indicator looks at banking liquidity and how it affects stock market performance over time. The core idea is that a rising trend in liquidity is bullish for the stock market because it reduces pressure on interest rates. Falling liquidity,...