Gaining/Losing Leverage

Gaining/Losing Leverage

  For this week’s indicator, we look at margin debt and how we use it to measure market sentiment. Margin debt is a measure of the amount of stock market borrowing that investors are doing with their brokerage accounts. When there is an increase in margin debt,...
Income Competition

Income Competition

  When it comes to generating income in retirement, an investor has two primary choices: stocks and bonds. A bond is straightforward; the income comes from the bond’s yield. On the other hand, stocks throw off dividends, which have the potential to be lucrative...
Hitting the Brakes

Hitting the Brakes

  Earnings are an important driver of stock market returns. But the stock market is a complicated beast—it doesn’t just trade off earnings growth alone. The key insight of this week’s featured indicator is that the market trades off the change in the...
Better Bargain

Better Bargain

  This week’s featured indicator looks at the stock market’s median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to measure valuation. For those unfamiliar, the P/E ratio is the price of a stock divided by its earnings per share. The higher the ratio, the more investors...
More Puts Than Calls

More Puts Than Calls

  Let’s say you’re an investor, and you want to place a bullish bet on the stock market. One way to do this would be to buy a call option. The value of a call option goes up when the price of a stock (or stock index) goes up—and it does so at a faster rate than...
Recession Probability

Recession Probability

  This week’s indicator looks at the yield curve and how its shape can be used to anticipate when an economic recession is becoming more likely. The portion of the yield curve that it focuses on is the 10-year Treasury rate and the 3-month Treasury rate. The New...