Not So Cheap Labor

Not So Cheap Labor

  For this week’s indicator, we focus on nonfarm unit labor costs. The biggest expense for most businesses is labor. And one way to measure the cost of labor is by looking at unit labor costs, or how much a firm pays its workers to produce one unit of output. In...
T-Bill Yield Momentum

T-Bill Yield Momentum

  Last week, I discussed this idea that short-term interest rates are surging, putting pressure on stocks. So, this week, I want to show the specific indicator that we use to measure short-term interest rate momentum, or what I’ll call T-Bill Yield Momentum. A...
Stressed Out

Stressed Out

  We have found that interest rates tend to call the tune of the stock market. In particular, the stock market tends to get stressed out when interest rates rise rapidly. Why? One reason is that bond yields (i.e., interest rates) compete with stock dividend...
Easy (Money) Does It

Easy (Money) Does It

  The stock market runs on money. It prefers an environment in which liquidity is readily available and banks are flush with cash. So naturally, we look to the nation’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, for clues on liquidity. The Federal Reserve is primarily...