Against the Grain

Against the Grain

  When we model intermediate-term stock market risk, we break up the model into three major categories: Price Movements, Investor Sentiment, and the Economic Environment. Each of these three major categories is comprised of six sub-composites each (for a total of...
Financial Conditions

Financial Conditions

  This week’s indicator focuses on the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) produced by the Chicago Federal Reserve. There are several “financial conditions” indexes out there, but the NFCI version includes a number of financial indicators (over 100)...
Pricing Power

Pricing Power

  This week’s indicator is all about pricing power.  When a company has pricing power, it can increase its prices and still maintain demand for its products.  Whether or not a company can do this depends on various factors.  But for many companies, labor is the...
Volatility of Volatility

Volatility of Volatility

  This week’s featured indicator focuses on the volatility of the volatility of the stock market. Yes, you read that right. Volatility of volatility. It sounds a bit weird. But more specifically, we are measuring the volatility of the VIX Index—aka the “Fear...
Consistent Momentum

Consistent Momentum

  Momentum is an important concept in financial markets. Sure, if you look at a chart of a broad stock market index like the S&P 500, the price seems to squiggle up and down erratically, sometimes with no clear direction as to where it’s headed. But if you...