Recession Probability

Recession Probability

  This week’s indicator looks at the yield curve and how its shape can be used to anticipate when an economic recession is becoming more likely. The portion of the yield curve that it focuses on is the 10-year Treasury rate and the 3-month Treasury rate. The New...
Entrenched Inflation

Entrenched Inflation

  Inflation has been a thorn in the side of the stock market all year. This week, we found out that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—a commonly used measure of inflation—dropped to an 8.3% year-over-year rate in August versus the 8.52% rate in July and the 9.06%...