Signs of Life, But Market Must Prove Itself
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market finished a strong month of July, with the S&P 500 soaring 4.26% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a gain of 2.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 4.7%. Foreign stocks did well, too. Developed country stocks...
Silver Lining
This week, the Commerce Department announced that real GDP fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter. This followed a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. Taken together, that’s two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, which...
Party With Stocks or T-Bill and Chill?
Near the end of the 1990s, two well-known economists, Robert Shiller and John Campbell argued that the high ratio of stock prices to dividends indicated that the stock market was seriously overvalued. In other words, they thought the dividend yield (dividends...
Valuing the Market
Whenever there’s talk about what drives the stock market, it usually comes back to two main factors: earnings and what investors are willing to pay for those earnings. A common way to quantify this relationship is to look at something called a price-to-earnings...
Finding the Right Gear
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market had another down week last week. After a 0.93% drop, the S&P 500 has now fallen in 12 of the last 15 weeks. The Dow edged lower 0.16%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.57%. Growth stocks pulled the market lower, with the Russell 3000...
Market Update – July 2022
Listen to the July 2022 Market Update where David Nelson and Jake Woodcock discuss their latest thoughts on the market.
Jumbo Hike
This week's big news was the release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation number. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation came in at 9.1%. That’s the highest it has been in 41 years and was higher than Wall Street’s expectations. As a result,...
Curve Inversion
For this week’s indicator, we have a metric that measures the Treasury yield curve. This specific yield curve looks at the difference between the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond versus a 3-month Treasury bond. This is depicted as the orange line on the bottom...
Slowing Growth, Stubborn Inflation, and Unfriendly Central Banks
OVERVIEW The U.S. stock market notched a week of strong gains, giving investors a reprieve after a prolonged bout of volatility. The S&P 500 rose 1.94%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.77%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 4.56%,...
An (Un)Balanced First Half
The 60/40 portfolio had a rough first half of the year. As our chart of the week above shows, it just registered its worst first-half performance since the worst one occurred during the Great Depression in 1932. So, what happened? The 60/40 balanced portfolio...
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