The Trend Tires Out

The Trend Tires Out

  When you look at a graph of the stock market, or, more specifically, an index of stocks—like a global stock market index—you notice that it tends to travel in trends over time. Sometimes it trends up, and sometimes it trends down. Coming out of the pandemic...
Not So Cheap Labor

Not So Cheap Labor

  For this week’s indicator, we focus on nonfarm unit labor costs. The biggest expense for most businesses is labor. And one way to measure the cost of labor is by looking at unit labor costs, or how much a firm pays its workers to produce one unit of output. In...
T-Bill Yield Momentum

T-Bill Yield Momentum

  Last week, I discussed this idea that short-term interest rates are surging, putting pressure on stocks. So, this week, I want to show the specific indicator that we use to measure short-term interest rate momentum, or what I’ll call T-Bill Yield Momentum. A...