Confident Credit

Confident Credit

  How do we know when investors are gearing up to embrace risk? We look at credit spreads, the featured metric in this week’s chart shown above. What are credit spreads? Simply put, they are the extra interest investors earn for lending money to companies instead...
Productivity Pop

Productivity Pop

  Sometimes we get an economic report that really jumps off the page. That was the case with this week’s productivity data. According to the BLS, labor productivity surged at a 4.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, the fastest increase in two years....
Signals From the Factory Floor

Signals From the Factory Floor

  Heading into the new year, one question we get a lot is: How is the economy doing? Now, it can be hard to answer a question like that, because what one means by “the economy” can be different for different people. Are we talking about economic growth?...
Higher for Longer

Higher for Longer

  We got some encouraging economic news this week. In the third quarter, real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace, the fastest growth in two years and well above expectations. That strength is welcome, but it also helps explain something else we’ve been living...
Grain of Salt

Grain of Salt

  The big news in the finance world this week was the release of the November inflation numbers. On the surface, it was a good report. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted a 2.7% y/y gain, down from 3% in September. And if we back out food and energy...
Testing the Fed

Testing the Fed

  The Fed went ahead and cut rates again this week. It was mostly expected. The bigger question is what comes next. Looking into next year, it is not clear how many additional cuts are actually on the table. Inflation remains above the Fed’s comfort zone, and...