Home Field Disadvantage

Home Field Disadvantage

  This week, I want to step outside the stock and bond markets and talk about the U.S. dollar. The dollar doesn’t tend to get the same attention as the stock market, but it touches almost everything in a portfolio. A weaker dollar tends to help international...
The Unloved Asset

The Unloved Asset

  Most of the time when we talk about investor sentiment, we talk about it in terms of one market at a time. Are investors too excited about stocks? Too gloomy about bonds? This week’s indicator asks a different question: how does the mood in one market compare...
Sold Out

Sold Out

  With second-quarter earnings season just about wrapped up, I want to use this week’s indicator to look at something a little different than earnings: sales. Why sales? Because earnings can be shaped by all sorts of things—cost cutting, buybacks, accounting...
Spreads Speak

Spreads Speak

  For this week’s indicator, I want to talk about market leadership. We tend to think about the stock market as one big thing. Either stocks are going up or stocks are going down. But underneath the surface, there is almost always a battle taking place between...
Working Overtime

Working Overtime

  This week, I want to highlight a different sort of indicator than we usually talk about. It has to do with overtime work and how it relates to bond prices. Why overtime? Because overtime is something almost everyone understands. When business is good and demand...
The Fantastic Stochastic

The Fantastic Stochastic

  Stocks or bonds? It’s a simple question, but the answer isn’t always so simple. Most of the time, investors will want to own some of both. But when the evidence becomes strong enough, it can make sense to lean more heavily in one direction. So, how do we know...