Searching for Inflation

Searching for Inflation

  Bonds. They’re kind of boring, right? Well, at least compared to stocks, they can be. Bonds rarely make headlines. They don’t have flashy earnings reports. And they don’t usually deliver the eye-popping returns that attract investors to the stock...
Making Bets

Making Bets

  Speculation. Is it good or bad for the stock market? Sometimes, it can be good. It’s a sign of optimism. But, as we know, too much of a good thing can be bad. So how do we know we’ve reached that point? Well, that’s what this week’s indicator—the NDR...
Big Mo Says No

Big Mo Says No

  This week we’re talking Big Mo. Big Momentum. It’s an important indicator because it encapsulates exactly the kind of process we prefer to use when building our models. That process is what we call the “weight of the evidence.” The idea is pretty...
Turning Up the Volume

Turning Up the Volume

  One of the hardest things about investing is separating healthy optimism from outright speculation. Markets need optimism to rise, but when investors become too eager to chase the next hot idea, that enthusiasm can eventually become a warning sign. This...
Pricing It In

Pricing It In

  A big challenge in investing is figuring out when stock prices have gotten ahead of reality. It’s a timely question given the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence and the strong rally we’ve seen in U.S. stocks over the past few years. This...
A Different View

A Different View

  This week, I want to highlight an indicator that interprets the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy actions a bit differently than we’re typically used to. For example, when we usually talk about a “tightening cycle,” it tends to be seen in a negative...