Pricing It In

Pricing It In

  A big challenge in investing is figuring out when stock prices have gotten ahead of reality. It’s a timely question given the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence and the strong rally we’ve seen in U.S. stocks over the past few years. This...
A Different View

A Different View

  This week, I want to highlight an indicator that interprets the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy actions a bit differently than we’re typically used to. For example, when we usually talk about a “tightening cycle,” it tends to be seen in a negative...
Fed and Friends

Fed and Friends

  The Federal Reserve met this week for its first policy meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% was widely expected and didn’t come as much of a surprise. However, the message coming out of the...
Re-Inflating the Balloon

Re-Inflating the Balloon

  For a while there it looked like inflation was beat. Sure, headline CPI numbers were still elevated relative to historical standards, but at least they were trending lower. And for roughly three years, our composite of inflation indicators remained in bullish...
Trimming the Hedges

Trimming the Hedges

  Hedge funds. You’ve probably heard of them before. But chances are you aren’t quite sure exactly what they do. Don’t worry, not many people do. And that’s by design. On the surface, a hedge fund is simply a professionally managed pool of money for wealthy...
The Universal Currency

The Universal Currency

  The author Vaclav Smil once said that “Energy is the only universal currency.” He’s right. To take it a step further, you might even say that energy, in the form of oil, is the lifeblood of industrial civilization. So, for this week’s indicator, let’s turn to...